What If: Scenario Planning for an Uncertain AI Future

Imagine a future where artificial intelligence (AI) surpasses human intelligence, transforming every aspect of our society and economy. What would this mean for the world as we know it, particularly for associations and non-profit organizations?

This is not a distant science fiction scenario, but a rapidly approaching reality that demands immediate attention and planning. Anton Korinek's article, "Scenario Planning for an AI Future," published in December 2023, explores this very notion. By considering various potential outcomes of AI's progression, Korinek provides a crucial framework for understanding and preparing for an AI-dominated future. This analysis is particularly pertinent for associations and non-profit organizations as they navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by this technological revolution.

Key Takeaways:

1. Rapid Advancements in AI: The article highlights the exponential growth in AI, exemplified by advances in generative models like ChatGPT. This rapid development signals a transformative era in computational capabilities.

2. Uncertainty about AI's Future Trajectory: Despite the progress, the future of AI remains uncertain, with debates surrounding its potential to achieve or surpass human-level intelligence.

3. Scenario Planning: Korinek suggests preparing for multiple scenarios, including a traditional business-as-usual scenario, a 20-year timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and an aggressive scenario where AGI is realized in just five years.

4. Economic and Societal Implications: Each scenario presents unique challenges and opportunities for economic growth, labor market dynamics, and societal structures. The article stresses the need for policy reforms to adapt to these changes.

5. Importance for Associations and Non-Profits: These organizations must prepare for shifts in the job market, advocate for equitable AI policies, and engage in strategic planning to remain effective in an AI-driven future.

6. Monitoring and Adaptation: Continuous monitoring of AI development and macroeconomic trends is essential to adapt policies and strategies in real-time.

This is a wake-up call for associations and non-profits to proactively engage in scenario planning for an AI future. The potential impact of AI on our society and economy cannot be overstated, and it is imperative for these organizations to be at the forefront of shaping a future where the benefits of AI are shared by all.

Need help evaluating and managing the uncertain future of AI?  Cimatri’s expert AI Advisors are ready to help. Reach out today for a free consultation.


Korinek, A. (2023). Scenario Planning for an AI Future. International Monetary Fund (online) December 2023.

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